Friday, August 31, 2007

Sharing data between Microsoft Word and Access

Dynamically fill Microsoft Word fields using Access data

Filter Access data with Word fields

Office applications share data easily, but sometimes the task is more complicated. Perhaps you want to filter Access data based on the contents of a Word field. The example technique in this TechRepublic How do I... populates a Word 2003 dropdown field with Access data. Then, the same form uses the selected value from that field to retrieve more Access data.

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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Today's Economics: Why Buy Gold?

Write Some Checks! Bail 'em Out!
Adrian Ash | Aug 24, 2007 | View It
"Goldman Sachs expects rates to finish the year at 4.5%, fully 75-points lower from here."

The Coming Flight To Gold
Roland Watson | Aug 27, 2007 |
View It

"Gold north of $1500?"

Barrick Gold Chief Sees No Slow-Down in U.S. Demand
Reuters | Aug 28, 2007 |
View It
"... Supply is declining, so the supply-demand imbalance is very positive for the gold price."

Why Buy Gold?
Peter Zihlman | Aug 28, 2007 |
View It
"While short-term charts show a lengthy consolidation . . . the long-term up-trends remain well entrenched."

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Sơ đồ bơm nước

Monday, August 27, 2007

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Friday, August 24, 2007

The Answer to the Panic Question


By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

"Steve, all the financial news lately has got me really worried… I think the market could lose a quarter of its value here… what do you think? "

A friend sent this e-mail to me in what felt like a panic. I'll reply to him in today's DailyWealth.

Dear [friend],

Don't worry…

I know that's easier said than done. The markets are down, politicians are looking for someone to blame for the subprime mess, and there doesn't seem to be an end to the real estate troubles.

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So it's quite normal to worry. Investors, in general, are more than worrying right now… investors are downright panicky.

I went back and crunched the numbers… and found that when investors panic, you want to be a buyer, not a seller.

Investors panicked in 1997 during the Asian crisis… but once the fear subsided, stocks shot up something like 20%. Investors then panicked in 1998 (during the Russian bond default/LTCM crisis). Once again, as the fear started to subside, stocks soared. As you can see in the chart, the S&P 500 shot from less than 1,000 to 1,400 in no time.

We had a few more panics… September 11, 2001, of course, but the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% very quickly – and this was during a bear market! Late 2002-early 2003, as the U.S. invaded Iraq. Once again, as the uncertainty/panic subsided, stocks soared… The S&P 500 ran from 800 to 1,100.

We're in another panic now. But the fear is subsiding…

The Volatility Index (the VIX) is my measure of fear. Some call it the Fear Gauge. On Friday, it closed at 30. On Monday, it closed at 26. Today, it's around 23.

Now I can't guarantee that fear can't jump once again. As you can see from the chart, the Fear Gauge often has more than one spike to "scary" levels.

But if you ask me, I think we're closer to a near-term bottom than a top. I can be completely wrong, of course… The Crash of '87 set a record on the Fear Gauge, and we didn't get a whole lot of advance warning. Just days before the '87 Crash – the worst one-day drop in Wall Street history – the Fear Gauge was right in line with its average for the previous 12 months.

Instead of betting on a decline from here, this is what I see: Based on valuation, stocks are as cheap as they've been in a dozen years. The Fed is about to start cutting interest rates. And if you believe that you've got to be a contrarian to make money, the contrary thing is to believe in stocks when most people don't… and that's now.

Don't worry. And don't hustle out and sell things in haste.

Good investing,

Steve

Thursday, August 23, 2007

The Secret of the Dump-Truck Tires

By Tom Dyson

"Does anyone want a tire?"

Everyone chuckled. Beside our tour bus was a pile of used dump-truck tires. Each one was the size of a garage door and as thick as a car.

"Anyone who wants one can have one," repeated our tour guide, with a smile. "As long as you take it away."

I toured Syncrude's property in Fort McMurray last month. Syncrude is the largest oil company in Athabasca. It's really a syndicate of eight oil companies, all joined together in one massive venture to mine the oil sands in a big way.

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It turns out, you can't do much with an old dump-truck tire.

Syncrude uses a few of them to line the roadways in its mine; farmers use a few of them as cattle feedlots. Some get used in playgrounds. The rest – some 600 tires annually – pile up on Syncrude's property, where tourists can gawk at them.

Syncrude uses the dump trucks to mine the oil sands. These dump trucks are the biggest in the world. They carry 400 tons of oil sand to the top of a mine. A monument overlooks one of the mines. It's a dump-truck tire with a plaque from the Michelin Tire Company underneath. The plaque says, "This is the largest truck tire ever made."

Since Syncrude started using dump trucks in the mid-1990s, its crude oil output has quadrupled and its stock price has gone up 1,500%.

Now Fort McMurray oil-sand miners face a severe shortage of dump-truck tires. A new dump-truck tire runs about $60,000. Tires last about 12 months. Each truck uses six tires at a time. That's more than $360,000 in tire expenses per truck every year. Syncrude owns 90 trucks.

Here's the thing: The tire's cost isn't the main concern of a mining company. It's availability. Oil-sand mines cannot operate without a supply of brand new dump-truck tires. Without dump-truck tires, they'd have to close their operations... and lose billions of dollars. So I bet the oil companies in Athabasca would pay $100,000 for new tires... if it meant keeping their mines open.

Today, I recommend you look into another critical Athabasca supply line, natural gas. Like tires, natural gas is an essential resource for the oil companies. You simply cannot produce oil without it.

In several DailyWealth columns, I explained why the natural gas market is heading into a supply crunch and why Alberta natural gas stocks will benefit. These natural gas producers not only have a bright future ahead of them, they're also deeply depressed right now.

Gas prices were soaring across North America in 2005, thanks to strong demand for clean electricity and accelerating production in the Canadian tar sands. Then Hurricane Katrina propelled gas to more than $15 per mcf. Money rushed into the western Canadian gas sector. In 2005, the number of drill rigs in the region increased by 25%.

But in 2006, the market reversed. The weather behaved, production was plentiful, and storage inventories in the U.S. turned into large surpluses. The price of gas collapsed more than 60%... and Alberta's gas stocks got knocked to the ground... and stayed there. Take a look at these gas plays:

Company Market Cap (C$) Down from
52-week high
West Energy $254 million 40%
Gentry Resources $100 million 54%
Vero Energy $142 million 32%
Ember Resources $74 million 49%
Berens Energy $73 million 59%

Please keep in mind... I've only compiled this table to show you how far the fall has been. More than a hundred players operate in Alberta, and many are great values. But I encourage you to get familiar with Alberta's gas companies... they won't stay depressed for much longer.

Good investing,

Tom

P.S. The small stocks I've listed above are extremely risky... and only a speculator with a good knowledge of them will succeed.

I prefer to play it safe. In the September issue of The 12% Letter - out yesterday - I recommended one of the largest owners of natural gas assets in Alberta. It pays you an enormous 14.8% dividend. Click here to learn more about The 12% Letter.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Batch Files : Get users default printer via registry (WinXP)

Batch Files : Get users default printer via registry (WinXP)

This is another quickie recipe for you admins. This recipe shows how to get the current user's default printer via the registry and output the information to a text file via a batch file and in turn combine the result files into a larger file to then import into excel.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Maxthon 2.0 Web browser


A few years, ago I stumbled upon a plug-in for Internet explorer called MyIE2 that added Firefox-like functionality such as tabs, ad blocking and autofill. Maxthon 2.0, from the same developers, seems intended to replace the older product and hopefully add maturity that the plug-in lacked. Is it the Right Tool for the Job?

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Acquire a global view of your security state: The importance of security assessments
Security issues can affect virtually every area of your business -- from your physical facilities to your network -- and all can benefit from a thorough vulnerability assessment. This IBM white paper discusses the importance of penetration testing and other types of security assessments.

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TechRepublic Today

Write custom trace files in TSQL

 

Write custom trace files in TSQL SQL Server 2005's default trace is great for monitoring system information and for finding out what happened on your server after problems occur. However, there are times when the events that the default captures are not what you need. Here are instructions for how you can create your own trace files in TSQL to catch events on your database machine.

Check out these additional developer resources


Software Library Solutions to today's problems today
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BA RIA - VUNG TAU

Area: 1,965km2

Population: 800,568

Provincial capital: Vung Tau City

Ethnic capital: Viet (Kinh), Chinese, Khmer.

Ba Ria - Vung Tau is a coastal province in the eastern region of southern Vietnam, around 128 km (79.36 miles) North-East of HCM City. The flat area of the province is nearly 100 metres above sea level and declines gradually toward the 80 km (49.6 miles) of coast with many beautiful swimming beaches. The offshore island of Con Dao boasts a national park and some historical and cultural relics. 

Vung Tau City is a beautiful coastal city with 15 km (9.3 miles) of coastline. It is endowed with many beautiful swimming and sunbathing beaches such as Bai Sau, Bai Dua, and Bai Dau. Thich Ca Phat Dai Park is a large pagoda in Vung Tau City. Its beauty lies in the harmonious combination between the natural surroundings and the architectural structure, which exists exclusively for religious worship.  

AN GIANG

Area: 3.244km2

Population: 2,049,039

Provincial capital : Long Xuyen

Ethnic groups: Viet (Kinh), Khmer, Cham, Chinese.

 


An Giang is a southern province of Vietnam with most of area being delta, except several mountains in the districts of Thoai Son, Tinh Bien and Tri Ton. An Giang has a tropical monsoon climate, with the annual average temperature of 270C. (80.60F.). There are two separate seasons in a year: dry season from May to November, and rainy season from December to April. 

There are many famous festivals in An Giang such as Ba Chua Xu (Xu Lady Lord) Festival (takes place every year on Sam Mountain), Nguyen Trung Truc (the leader of the patriots who rose agaisnt the French in Nam Bo) Temple Festival (in Long Kien village, Cho Moi District), Cows race Festival of Khmer Ethnic Group (Unique traditional culture of Khmer people in Tinh Bien and Tri Ton Districts)

Apart from its first rank in the country in terms of rice output (over 2 million ton a year), the province is well-known for bumper crops like corn, soy beans, and aqua-products. Other special products of the An Giang Province: Tan Chau silk, Chau Doc fish sauce, Cho Thu woodwork, and cloth-weaving of the Cham people.

HA NOI

HA NOI
 

Land area: 921km2

Population: 2,672,122

Ethnic groups: Viet (Kinh) 

Geography:

Hanoi lies in the Red River Delta. It borders the hilly provinces of Vinh Phu and Bac Thai to the north, the provinces of Ha Bac and Hai Hung to the east, and the province of Ha Tay to the south and the province of Ha Tay and Vinh Phu to the west.  The city of Hanoi is situated from longitude 20o25' North and from Latitude 105o15' to 106o03' East. It is situated in a tropical area having a strong monsoon influence. Hanoi is endowed with all the four seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter. Climate in Hanoi can be divided into two distinct seasons: the dry and the rainy seasons. The dry season. The dry season starts from October to April. This is the period characterized by spells of cold wind and drizzles. The rainy season starts in May and ends in September, there are many torrential rains and fierce sunshine in this period. The autumn season is in August, September and October. Climate in Autumn in Hanoi is characterized by a clear, blue sky and gentle spells of breeze. However at the close of the autumn in the city there are short spells of little cold which are eventually followed by long spells of severe cold and drizzles that make the sky gloomy all day long. That is the beginning of the winter time.

Temperature: 

Average temperature in winter time is registered at 17o 2C. The lowest temperature at the same period is recorded at 5o C. Average temperature in summer time is recorded at 29o2C. The highest temperature at the same period is registered at 40oC. Average temperature in a year is recorded at 23o 2C. Annual average of rainfall is registered at 1,800 millimeters.

 Rivers: 

Hanoi is situated on an ancient soil area deposited from time immemorial with layer after layer of alluvium carried down from the northern mountain ranges by the Red River and its tributaries. That is the reason why Hanoi's feel as closely connected to their Red River as children do towards their mothers. In the old days the Red River has been given another common name: Cai (Mother) River. The name of Hanoi (Exterior side of a river) has derived from an ancient language which is literally known as a land area located in the inner side the Red River. It is not that the city is inside the river but rather it is embraced by about 100 kilometers of the Red river dykes. The dyke portion in Hanoi accounts for about one fifth of the total river dykes flanking on either side of the Red River that runs along the Vietnamese territory on a stretch of more than 500 kilometers.

Other rivers that run through Hanoi include the Duong, the Cau, the Ca Lo, the Day, the Nhue, the Tich, the To Lich and the Kim Nguu rivers. The last two river, To Lich and Kim Nguu, have been regarded as an inexhaustible sources of inspiration for many Vietnamese literature writers and poems who lived in the capital city in the old days. These two rivers were considered the most Poetic and romantic bodies of water that flows through the city.
 At present the two rivers, To Lich and Kim Nguu, are still partly seen in the city. Their former grandeur has long lost their literature charm because they have to give way to urbanization development scheme. Currently these rivers are regarded merely as the city's main open ditch drainage system. However, the government has had in mind a massive upgrading scheme to return the two historic rivers their original beauty

 Lakes: 

Hanoi has long been considered as the city of romantic lakes. Currently there are 18 lakes with water surface areas totaling more than 2,200 hectares. Those beautiful lakes which have come down into Vietnam's history of prose and verse literature include Ho Hoan Kiem (Sabre Restored Lake), Ho Tay (West Lake), Ho Truc Bach (White Bamboo Lake), Thien Quang Lake, Ho Bay Mau (Bay Mau Lake), Ho Thu Le (Thu Le Lake), and Ho Giang Vo (Martial Art Training Lake). These lakes are considered the giant lungs of the city which is covered with parks and shade trees grown along main boulevards to make the city more close to nature.

ADMINISTRATIVE AREAS

Hanoi has six inner precincts: Hoan Kiem, Ba Dinh, Hai Ba Trung, Dong Da, Tay Ho, Cau Giay, Thanh Xuan

Hoan Kiem Precinct:

This is regarded as the business district, the central administrative part of the city. Hoan Kiem precinct is the place where are located the city council locally known as the Municipal People's Committee, big trade centers, and the city's ancient trade and occupation area regionally reputed as the "ancient Hanoi with 36 guild streets."

Ba Dinh Precinct:

This is the area where are located most of the government offices. Ba Dinh Precinct is also famous for the location of the Mausoleum of the late President Ho Chi Minh, next to the historic Ba Dinh Square and many historic and cultural sites of the capital city.

Dong Da Precinct:

This area is mostly marked for residential areas and universities. In the last two or three decades, there have emerged several big residential areas. They are government-built apartment buildings locating in Trung Tu, Giang Vo, Thanh Xuan, Yen Lang areas. Most of the tenants are government employees. Along Nguyen Trai Road leading to National Highway 6 to the southwest of the city are located several major universities and colleges. This area, about seven kilometers from the city's center, houses the Hanoi Foreign Languages Institute, the institute of Architecture, the National University formerly known as the Hanoi University, and several others.

Hai Ba Trung Precinct:

This is also an area mostly used for residential and educational projects. Many projects have been built along the National Highway 1A. There has been some sort of infrastructure for the forming of a national university village on the southern approach to the city. Currently there are the head office of the Vietnam's Ministry of Education and Training, The National Polytechnics Institute, the Institute of Construction and the National Institute of Economics.

 

And Tay Ho, Cau Giay and Thanh Xuan are the three new founded precincts.

There are five suburban districts:

Tu Liem, Thanh Tri, Gia Lam, Dong Anh and Soc Son. The current construction site of the Nghi Tam tourist resort center on the bank of Ho Tay is in Tu Liem district.

 

Ha Noi is the capital of Socialist Republic of Vietnam as well as the center of culture, economy, trade, and tourism. Lying in Red River Delta, Hanoi is an ancient city that was built in 1010 by Ly Cong Uan Dynasty. Originally named as Thang Long (Ascending Dragon), it was then renamed Dong Do (Eastern Capital) and now Ha Noi (Inner side of river).

Today, Ha Noi still preserves many ancient architectural buildings including the areas of ancient streets, whose names are attached closely with the trade and occupation of its inhabitants, and more than 600 pagodas. Apart from these, there are many modern buildings, such as President Ho Chi Minh's Mausoleum, Viet Xo Friendship Palace... and a system of different museums and theatres. Part of the city's area is lakes covering 10ha (24.7 acres) with the largest ones being West Lake, Hoan Kiem Lake, and Bay Mau Lake.  

Ha Noi is well known for many types of food. The most impressive food is "Pho" (a kind of rice noodle with a tasty broth), "Cha ca La Vong" (rice noodle served with fried trout), "Nem" (spring roll), "Bun Cha" (warm rice noodle served with roasted pork), and "Banh Goi" (a cake that looks like a pillow).  

Ha Noi is also home to various traditional handicraft articles. They are rattan products; pottery ware; sculptured and carved products; silk items. Many of these have become the most impressive types of souvenirs from Vietnam. 

Arriving in Ha Noi, you have chance to visit One Pillar Pagoda, Temple of Literature (the first University of Vietnam), Hanoi Cathedral, Quan Thanh Temple, Tran Quoc Pagoda, Thong Nhat Park, and Thu Le Park, Cua Bac Church - or go on an excursion to tourist spots around Hanoi: Co Loa Citadel, Huong Pagoda, and Tay Phuong Pagoda.

 

 In Vietnam's history, Ha Noi has always been the political, cultural, scientific-technological center, as well as a great economic and political center of the whole country.

In the process of national renovation and development, Ha Noi has attracted much investment, contributing to the development of the national economy in general, and of the North Delta Region (Ha Noi-Hai Phong-Quang Ninh) in particular.

KHANH HOA

 

Area: 5,257 km2

Population: 1,031,262

Provincial capital: Nha Trang City

Ethnic groups: Viet (Kinh), Gia Rai, Ede, Gie Trieng, Cham...

Khanh Hoa is a coastal province lying in the north of HCM City with Truong Sa archipelago. Khanh Hoa topography gradually lowers from west to east with mountains, hills, coastland and islands. The two biggest rivers flowing through the province are Cai River (enters the sea in Nha Trang) and Dinh River. Khanh Hoa has a rather mild climate with the average annual temperature of 26.50 C. (79.90 F.)

In terms of transportation, Khanh Hoa has many seaports. Its Cam Ranh Port is one of the best seaports of Vietnam. The province also owns two airports in Nha Trang and Cam Ranh.

Khanh Hoa is rich in natural resources, mainly forest products, sea products, and especially sea swallow's nest. Khanh Hoa is also famous for its tourist attractions with a 7km-beach and dozens of historical places, pagodas, and beautiful scenery (the group of five or six islands situated close to each other. The largest of the islands is Hon Tre, which is located 3 km from Nha Trang).  Nha Trang is not only famous for its natural landscapes, but also for its heritage of the Cham culture (Po Nagar Towers).

HO CHI MINH City

Land area: 2,090 km2

Population: 5, 037, 155

Ethnic groups: Viet (Kinh)

Located in the south of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh city is a new settlement, the word Saigon having been registered for the first time in documents dating back to 1698. There are two distinct seasons: the rainy season from May to November and the dry season from December to April. The climate is particularly favorable for tourism.  

Ho Chi Minh City is divided into 17 urban districts and five rural districts. There are also 305 sub-districts and communes. Hundreds of rivers and canals cross the Ho Chi Minh City area, but most are mainly small. Saigon river, crossing the city on 106km, is the biggest. Means of communication by road, railway, or sea from Ho Chi Minh to all other provinces are also efficient.  

One of the main characteristics that influenced the 300 years of Saigon is the combination of three cultural sources: Vietnamese, Chinese, and European.  

The city's resources and accommodations are attractive elements for several tourists. Typical tourist sites would be counted here as Nha Rong Port (where late President Ho Chi Minh first left for France seeking the way to rescue the country from the colonists), Ho Chi Minh Museum, Thong Nhat Hall, Notre Dame Cathedral, Vinh Nghiem Pagoda and Giac Lam Pagoda.  Besides historical relics, the city charms its visitors with and many parks and flower gardens and entertainment resorts (Suoi Tien, Dam Sen, Water Park).

Ho Chi Minh City is located in a special geographical position, converging many favorable conditions for economic development. Since olden time, the City has been a most strategic area on the South, a dense and prosperous trade center, a gate and a relation clue with foreign countries.

In building the country, Ho Chi Minh City really has been an economic, industrial, financial center, an international relation and tourism center of the whole country, with amphibious communication clue and convenient air-line, a cultural and scientific technological center, etc…http://www.hcminvest.gov.vn 

How to change global message size limits

Aug. 22nd: Maximize your VPN investment with GoToMyPC Corporate

Join this live TechRepublic Webcast to learn how you can expand VPN service to a growing number of mobile users -- with no capital investment and very little IT support. (Sponsored by Citrix Online)


Exchange : How to change global message size limits

Scott LoweScott Lowe writes: "TechRepublic member mbano recently asked a question about the size of attachments allowed to be associated with e-mail messages in Outlook 2003. If you use Exchange on the server side, this quick tip outlines how to change global message size limits in both Exchange 2003 and Exchange 2007.


See also: Member question on Exchange Server mail routing

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  • 12 Tips for Better E-mail Etiquette
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  • Web mail giants lock horns as Microsoft bumps up Hotmail storage limit
    Just as Google announced that it would be charging for increased space on its Gmail accounts, Microsoft has upped the storage ante with an offering of 4 GB for free Hotmail account users and 10 GB for a paid service. This is better than the approximately 2.8 GB that Gmail provides for free, but it falls short of the unlimited storage that Yahoo advertises.
  • Sanity Check: Is IT still a profession worth recommending to the next generation?
    Blogger Jason Hiner writes: I"n response to my column last week about the split between IT strategy and operations, several TechRepublic members responded that they have become disillusioned with the way the IT profession has developed and that they have a hard time recommending it as a career path to the next generation."

Quick hits

For more E-mail Administration resources, check out our E-mail administration archive page.

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Software Library Solutions to today's problems today
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Half-time in the Credit Crisis

The Daily Reckoning Australia

Ouzilly, France - Melbourne, Australia

Tuesday, 21 August 2007

---------------------

***Half-time in the credit crisis...strip club transactions...positive
black swans...

*** Soothing cloud of nitrous oxygen covers investors...believing in
two great delusions...

*** The markets let out a big hoorah...gypsy wagon manufacturing
services...and more!

---------------------

IMPORTANT REMINDER: In order to ensure that you receive future emails
from the Daily Reckoning, please add
dr@dailyreckoning.com.au to your
e-mail address book.

---------------------

From Dan Denning in Victoria:

--Is it over yet? Opinions in the financial media are mixed over
whether the worst of the credit crisis is behind is, or whether it's
half-time. The Australian market did not pause for reflection
yesterday. It took action. The ASX/200 was up 261 points on the day to
close within shouting distance of 6,000. It was the biggest one day
gain in ten years.

--Woo hoo!

--And hold everything. The US Senate is getting involved in the crisis.
That should fix things right up. Christopher Dodd, a Democratic Senator
from the well-heeled state of Connecticut (home to thousands of Wall
Street and hedge fund professionals) convened a meeting last night with
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry
Paulson.

--Dodd is a showoff. Doesn't he know politicians belong in strip clubs,
where they can do less damage to the public good? A politician is just
as comfortable in a "gentleman's club" as he is on the campaign trail.
And how different are the two places anyway? In both cases you find
elected officials doling out cash in exchange for favours. On the
campaign trail, it's taxpayer cash in exchange for votes. At least the
strip club transaction does not involve the theft of a third party's
hard-earned wages.

--How about BlueScope Steel? The company reported net profits of AU$686
million for its full-year results, nearly double last year's net
profit. It's benefiting from big infrastructure spending at the State
level here in Australia and growth in its Asian business. It's also a
sign that there are indeed some businesses in Australia not directly
affected by Americans who can't pay their mortgage.

--But we suspect the full effect of the crisis in the credit markets
hasn't been felt yet. It feels like a sucker's rally in blue chips that
allows sellers to liquidate in a rising market. Where will the buying
come from, we wonder. The Future Fund?

--The next two months won't be smooth sailing. In October, US$50
billion in subprime loans re-set. Right now, behind closed doors,
thousands of investors are busy trying to unload their exposure to
asset-backed securities. But who is going to buy? The Fed?

--We'll have to cut the notes short today. We're writing about positive
black swans in the next issue of the Australian Small Cap Investigator.
It's the good kind of black swan, an unlikely event that turns out to
be highly profitable for investors. There are certain kinds of
businesses where positive black swans flourish. And many of them are
now on sale after the recent correction.

--Woo hoo!

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---------------------

From Bill Bonner in Ouzilly:

We take a moment to look at the big, wide world of money every day. And
when we look today what we see is a monumental, soothing hallucination
settling over investors, like a giant cloud of nitrous oxygen.

On Friday, of course, the market bounced - up more than 200 points. A
neighbour interpreted this move for us at a party Saturday night:

"Did you see what happened on Friday? Stocks went up everywhere. It's
over. The crisis is over. Because the central banks can always put in
more money and credit. That's what happened. The US Fed cut lending
rates and markets came back. I'm not worried. I think we're going to
see higher prices."

The man speaking was a retired French banker. Like everyone else with
any money, he has been watching recent events and wondering what was
going on. And like almost everyone else, he has come to the wrong
conclusion. As to where stock prices are headed, we are as dumb as
everyone else. Many times we have tried to look into the future - even
when we were on vacation. But we've never gotten the hang of it. It
just isn't possible to know what will happen.

But it seems probable that a clear majority of the world's investors
now believe in two great delusions: one, that central banking has taken
the risk out of investing...and its corollary; that market prices are
now on the rebound. Again, they may be right - by accident - about the
latter point. But it will prove to be an expensive triumph, in our
view, because they are surely wrong about the former one. Central
banking has not taken the risk out of investing; it has magnified it.

On Friday, the Bernanke Fed looked a lot like the old Greenspan
Fed...riding out to rescue speculators like the cavalry to the aid of
desperate pioneers. The trumpet sounded...the rifles fired...and the
savages were beaten back.

"Thank god for the boys in blue," said the pilgrims. "They come along
just when you need them. Now, we can go and settle that rich bottomland
across the river. They'll always protect us."

If only running an economy were so easy! We're on vacation, so we're
not going to think about it too much. But it was only a week or so ago
that the Fed told us that inflation was the real enemy. Now, Ben
Bernanke has cut the discount rate by half of a percentage point in
order to counter the deflationary effects of a credit crisis.

Banks - and other financiers - got themselves into trouble because they
had too much money on their hands. They lent it out much too freely. So
Bernanke comes to their rescue. And with what? More money of course.

The markets let out a big hoorah on Friday. But how, exactly, is a
lower discount rate going to solve the problem? In October of this
year, the big hump in mortgage resets comes - with more than US$50
billion in mortgages to be adjusted upwards. Then, next year another
half a trillion in mortgages is to be reset, with the final peak coming
in March.

The typical subprime borrower from 2004-2006 will have to come up with
about US$400 per month more. Where will he get the money? Who will lend
to him? And why would he borrow?

If you think the rate of foreclosures is up now - just wait until
October. And it won't just effect those subprime borrowers.
Unfortunately, you could be the best homeowner in the world...maybe
you've even paid off your mortgage... but if there is a foreclosure
near your house, it could lower the value - by up to US$20,000!

Yes, we're all believers in the Theology of Capitalism now. That is, we
don't think we have to look too deeply into the Holy Mysteries that
surround modern markets. The place is full of miracles; that is all we
need to know.

But when it comes to real, free-market capitalism, we are all agnostic.
People think that central banks can collude to manipulate the
markets...and thereby avoid a much-needed correction forever. Our guess
is that investors will pay dearly for the delusion.
"The world is flat after all," a friend wrote us, sending the following
item:

"Yi Xianrong, a banking and finance expert at the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences, said Chinese banks had been lax as they built up 3
trillion yuan (US$396.2 billion) of mortgage lending.

"'The quality of housing loans are much worse than the subprime loans
in the United States,' Yi was quoted as saying by the South China
Morning Post.

"At least there has been a credit check system (in the United States)
but in China anyone can borrow money to buy a house."

See, dear reader. Americans aren't the only ones. Now, everyone can
take part in foolish trends and fads.

Before we sign off for today, we'll give you a quick glimpse into our
days of 'leisure'. We are using this vacation to figure out how to
simplify our lives. So far, we've taken out the windows on the top
floor so that we could paint them. And we've put up a bit of stonewall
near the farmhouse. Now, we just have to figure out how to make an
arched doorway.

"And what qualifies you to think that you can make an arch in a stone
wall," asked Jules, with an almost insolent tone in his voice.

"There's nothing to it. People have been making arches for thousands of
years. It can't be that tough. I'm just going to use a lot of cement to
hold it together."

"Sounds like a lawsuit coming..."

Also, we finished the gypsy wagon...except that when we parked it near
the pond, we realised that we would have to make some screens for the
windows, as there are mosquitoes down by the water. It is built on an
old hay wagon, about sixteen feet long and six feet wide. Inside, there
is a little gas stove, a table with two chairs and a bed. It is very
cute...a perfect place to have a cup of tea, read a book or take a nap.

"Well, it looks like a good place to shoot the swamp rats," said Henry.
"I can put the rifle out through the window and hit them when they are
crossing the pond."

We have huge swamp rats. They aren't really rats at all. Instead, they
are a South American animal - nutria - that somehow got loose in France
and now are everywhere. Occasionally, someone will make a pâté out of
them which is tasty. And they aren't harmful, except to the banks of
the pond. But we don't like the look of them.

The gypsy wagon is meant to be painted in bright colors. But when we
were painting it, the red we were using seemed almost blindingly
bright. So, we decided to go with a sober grey for the main exterior
color, trimmed with bright blue and red. Now we regret the decision.
From a distance, the thing looks too pale...it looks a little sad; as
if it had been abandoned.

"We'll just have to repaint it," we told the kids.

"I'm not painting that again," said Edward. "I already painted it three
times, because you kept changing the colours. It's going to stay that
way..."

The quality of our labour is not necessarily what we would like. But we
can't really complain. We pay Edward, 13, just one euro an hour...or 20
euros per week for a 20-hour work week (he is on vacation too). At that
rate, we have to accept a little back talk.

"Dad," said Sophia, in a much more positive mood, "this gypsy wagon
turned out pretty well. Maybe we should make more of them and sell them
over the Internet."

Hmmm...gypsy wagon manufacturing...a new business opportunity. That
would simplify things!

--------------------

LEARN MORE ABOUT DAILY RECKONING AUSTRALIA EDITOR DAN DENNING

DID YOU KNOW?  The Daily Reckoning's editor, Dan Denning, is the author of
the New York Times best-selling book, The Bull Hunter: Tracking Today's
Hottest Investments

Ask for it in your local bookshop or buy it online from Dymocks here:
http://draustralia.c.topica.com/maahwqmabAHG5bJhLLIbafpTkF/

--------------------

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: Capitalism punishes those who have made
financial errors. This process is the economic equivalent of natural
selection, in which the weak and unfit are eliminated. But by injecting
'liquidity' into world markets, central banks are blocking this
process, and creating a whole lot of trouble along the way. Bill Bonner
exposes...

THE CENTRAL BANK CLOT
by Bill Bonner

The financial industry, most of the time, operates under false
pretenses. The business of true capitalism is to destroy them. The two
are natural enemies.

"Central banks seek to unblock markets," reported the Financial Times
on August 12. The gist of the story was that the financial industry
seemed to be having something akin to a cardiac infarction and central
bankers, rushing in like heart surgeons from the golf course, were
attempting a bypass. If successful, we were led to believe, Bernanke,
Trichet and the lot would get their mugs on the cover of Business Week
and TIME, and soon join the great assembly of capitalism's saints.

In fact, what the bankers were up to was the exact opposite of what the
FT reported. At the end of that week and the beginning of the last one,
central banks all over the world were engaged in a vigorous attempt at
price fixing and market manipulation; that is, they were trying to
block markets from doing what they needed to do.

As we mentioned two weeks ago, no man worships capitalism. Instead, if
he has any sense, he fears it...and aims to put a stop to it as soon as
he is able. In any economy, mistakes are made. People invest in
projects that don't pay off. They pay too much for a stock. They lend
to people who can't pay the money back. If these errors were to go
unpunished, the mal-investment and misallocation of resources would
continue. Eventually, the whole shebang would collapse into a heap of
unwanted products and un-performing assets. That is why we have
corrections...bear markets...and panics; they are an economy's
equivalent of natural selection, eliminating the weak and unfit.

The key variable in capitalism is the cost of money - the interest
rate, which establishes a "hurdle rate" against which to judge all
financial transactions. It is the natural environment in which
capitalists must survive. If a new project will return 5% per year and
the cost of money is 6% per year, the proposed investment doesn't make
it. But if the cost of money drops to 1%, all of sudden even the most
absurd and clownish investments get to reproduce. Soon, the world is
full of them.

In a free market, the 'hurdle rate' is set like all other prices -
based on supply and demand. But central banks meddle with interest
rates - typically pushing down on the short rates, and thus lowering
the hurdle rate for all borrowers. In fact, most of the freaks now
crowding the financial world are the spawn of central bankers who held
down rates too low for too long.

Corrections can take many different forms. Occasionally, speculators
panic; they stop worrying about the return ON their money all-together;
instead they fret about the return OF their money. Then, it becomes
hard to borrow at any rate.

Over the last few weeks, capitalists have become edgy and disagreeable.
Lured by an artificially low lending rate, maybe they lent a little too
freely. Maybe they spent a little too much. Maybe their speculations
weren't as good as they thought they were. Mistakes were made; they
needed to be corrected. As a result, markets began to wobble. Stock
prices came down, with more than a trillion dollars trimmed from US
stocks alone. And credit markets began to constrict; banks on both
sides of the Atlantic were stuck with nearly a half a trillion dollars'
worth of corporate loans that investors refused to take.

These were the facts when, on the ninth of August, the capitalist cops
were doing their job. They were beating up homeowners who had bought
houses they couldn't afford. They were taking their cudgels to the
lenders too...and to CDO speculators, hedge fund players, imprudent
bankers, and whiz-kid mathematicians. And once their blood was
up...they were whacking away at everyone who came into range -
including stock market investors, pension fund managers, City
investment banks. Rich, poor...smart, stupid...they were giving them
all a good thrashing.

But then, along came the central bankers.

On August ninth and tenth, the Bank of Japan, the European Central
Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Fed all began to intervene. One report
said the ECB had 'injected' US$215 billion into the system. Others said
the Fed had put US$38 billion to work. By Monday, the Bank of Japan and
the ECB were still at it...colluding to knock down the hurdle all
together. The BOJ put in another US$5 billion, which was already having
a "calming effect" on Asian markets, said the papers. On Monday, too,
the ECB put in another 47.7 billion euros.

Whatever the final numbers turn out to be, it is a lot of new money in
a short period of time - more than at any time since the days
immediately following 9/11 in 2001. Lending by the New York Fed was so
vigorous that the fed funds rate fell to the lowest rate since 2004.

The purpose of all this lucre was said to be to provide "liquidity".
What is liquidity, you may wonder? Lo...it is the same cheap money that
got markets in trouble in the first place! It is as if they had opened
a new mortgage lender in Santa Ana, California, offering no-money-down,
teaser-rate, no-document adjustable rate mortgages.

If we're lucky, borrowers won't fall for it and the cops can get back
to work.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia


Editor's Note: Bill Bonner is the founder and editor of The Daily
Reckoning. He is also the author, with Addison Wiggin, of The Wall
Street Journal best seller Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft
Depression of the 21st Century (John Wiley & Sons).

Buy it Online at Angus & Robertson:
http://draustralia.c.topica.com/maahwqmabAHG6bJhLLIbafpTkF/

In Bonner and Wiggin's follow-up book, Empire of Debt: The Rise of an
Epic Financial Crisis, they wield their sardonic brand of humor to
expose the nation for what it really is - an empire built on delusions.

Buy it Online at Angus & Robertson:
http://draustralia.c.topica.com/maahwqmabAHG7bJhLLIbafpTkF/

--- FREE FOR DAILY RECKONING READERS ---

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intelligence you need to know before you can really begin your
financial day.

We started Money Morning to give you that "must know" information, help
make you a better investor and ultimately, keep more of your money.
Money Morning is designed for the serious investors who can't afford to
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